Scenario Planning for Effective Regional Governance: Promises and Limitations

Regional governance has improved efficiencies in various common goods such as transportation. Attempts to take advantage of such regional economies through regulation of land use run into the problems of existing local government controls and lack of existing alternative authority. One way to help promote regional solutions is to foster coordination among land use entities in local government. Scenario planning provides a participatory process, allows for thinking systematically about the future, and has been tested for its potential in furthering regional governance. An ongoing effort called the Maryland Scenarios Project is leveraged. The process of scenario building is assessed, and four scenarios are compared. The outcomes show different local and regional impacts under different possible futures. The analysis helps identify strategies for local governments including reacting to or collaborating with neighboring jurisdictions. The findings suggest that scenario planning encourages rational decision making on a regional level and can be an important policy instrument for local and state governments.